Campbell's Bizarro World

Campbell Soup and many other food companies must feel like they're living in the Bizarro World.

Just a quarter or two ago, costs were rising and the dollar was falling. Now it's the other way around in both cases. So while Campbell's sales are still headed up, its profits are falling.

More than a quarter of the company's sales are in overseas markets, so the dollar's rise is crimping earnings. Campbell forecasted slower profit growth in the year ahead—but discounting the effect of the rising dollar, it says profit growth would be between 5 percent and 7 percent.

Volatile commodity markets won't help either. In the just-completed first quarter, net income fell by 3.7 percent, thanks to losses on commodity hedging.

"In general," wrote the Wall Street Journal's Mike Barris, "food companies stand to benefit as consumers eat more often at home to save money, and commodity prices retreat."

And Ruthie Ackerman at Forbes.com wrote: "The packaged and prepared foods industry has historically performed better in times of economic downturns, as consumers opt to eat at home rather than dine out at restaurants."

Which is all well and good. But when you don't know whether the dollar or commodities are going to soar or plummet in the near term, it's hard to take full advantage of consumer trends.