The Big Bad Bank

The Big Bad Bank


Posted Saturday, January 17, 2009 - 8:12am

The Wall Street Journal banners news that the U.S. government is working on a plan to set up a "bad bank"—or so Britain is calling its own version—to buy up distressed assets from financial institutions in the second phase of the Great Bailout. The discussions "show how the rapid deterioration of bank assets is outpacing the government's rescue efforts," writes the Journal, which adds that banks are now bogged down not only with poorly made real-estate investments, "but also with the car loans, credit-card debt and other consumer debt that have taken a hit with the faltering economy." Goldman Sachs economists estimate that financial institutions and investors around the globe will "ultimately realize $2 trillion in losses on U.S. loans," only half of which has been felt so far, the Journal reports.

The intensified talks go hand-in-hand with news from the Financial Times that turmoil in global banking continues to grow as Citigroup and Merrill Lynch reported gargantuan losses Friday and shares in Britain's Barclays plunged due to investor fear that it might need more capital. Curiously, Barclays claimed, "it knew of no reason for the plunge," according to the FT. Merrill Lynch got bludgeoned by the fourth quarter, reporting a $21.5 billion operating loss. At fault? Mortgage-backed assets, which plummeted the last quarter of 2008. Citigroup's net loss of $8.3 billion "underlined the depth of banks' problems."

"Another day, another bailout"—or so says Forbes, which reports that the U.S. Treasury announced it will lend Chrysler Financial, a special-purpose entity created by the company to help the finance new consumer auto loans, $1.5 billion of TARP money. Forbes compares the loan with the $6 billion one GMAC got less than a month ago, saying that Chrysler now joins the ranks of General Motors as automakers that are relying on government funding to keep their heads above water. Not to be left out, Ford Credit reported it, too, was in talks to obtain federal aid, the Washington Post adds.

The New York Times and the WSJ, for the second day in a row, highlight Circuit City's dismantling. "Circuit City Stores, a bellwether American retailer, said Friday that it would go out of business, stripping the nation of its second-largest consumer electronics chain," the WSJ writes. The company filed for bankruptcy protection in November but was unable to get back on its feet in the face of weak sales. Most of the chain’s 34,000 store employees will be laid off, says the NYTimes. The paper reports that the company's demise "is part of a radical shift taking place in retailing" in which "weak chains-unable to weather the freeze-up in consumer spending and choked by tight credit markets-are closing."

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Why I Want Captain Sullenberger to be CEO of my Bank

WHY I WANT US AIR CAPTAIN SULLENBERGER TO BE THE CEO MY BANK
WilliamBanzai7

On a cold January day when they would have been focused on the incredible
stream of bad news spewing from Wall Street, New Yorkers
were instead treated to the enthralling news that a US Air Flight was averted from disaster by
a brave crew lead by Pilot Chesley Sullenberger III. The
event has been dubbed "The Miracle on the Hudson" and Captain
Sullenberger has been hailed as a hero. He is a modest
man and is evidently reluctant to assume this new status.
What is becoming clear from the news reports is the character of
the man. The passengers of Flight 1549 were fortunate to have
Captain Sullenberger as their pilot. The miracle on the Hudson, it would seem,
was preceded by many many years of dedication, training and "worst case scenario" preparation.

Lets contrast the attributes of Captain Sullenberger with the attributes
of the CEO's piloting the financial institutions attempting to recover from
the so called Black Swan events plaguing the financial markets. After all,
Captain Sullenberger apparently recovered from the mother of all "Black Swan" flight
events, two of them knocking out both engines over a densely populated city.
It would appear that Wall Street has much to learn.

First of all, Captain Sullenberger spent a great deal of time studying and
preparing for a disastrous low probability event. Pilots assume and prepare
for worst case scenarios even though the chance of
occurrence is an outlier. A double engine failure from a bird strike is just such an event.

Lets contrast that with Wall Street CEOs. Its a good thing they are not
airline pilots. They were all totally unprepared for the events leading to the
current bailout debacle. They would argue that these were Black Swan events of
of highly unlikely probability. Nouriel Roubini and Nicholas Taleb would beg to differ.
There was plenty of adequate warning. Instead of cooly preparing to ditch like
Captain Sullenberger, they continued their assent on a tank filled with fumes.  Now their instituitions are crashing in flames.
They can be compared to Icarus flying too close to the sun with their wax wings melting in mid flight.

Next, Captain Sullenberger trained and knew how to fly his aircraft with both engines
knocked out. Gliding is one of his side pursuits and this apparently figured positively
in the perfect Hudson landing. Lets contrast this with Wall Street CEOs.
They have no idea how to fly their institutions with their primary economic engines
knocked out. Lloyd Blankfein insists that Goldman Sachs can fly the same investment banking
model it has been flying for years. What if Captain Sullenberger had flown Flight 1549
as if both engines remained fully operational?

Onward, Captain Sullenberger is honest and transparent. His passengers were his stakeholders and
he pulled no punches. His laconic words: "Brace for impact." Wall Street bankers are not
transparent, if they were flying Flight 1549 here is the kind of mealy mouthed
dribble the passengers would have heard: Attention all passengers, we appear to be challenged
by strong headwinds and both our engines appear troubled but  nevertheless well positioned to
see us through to a safe landing. We have run a regression analysis on
the relevant data and are 99% confident that this plane is adequately positioned to
exploit future flying opportunities."

Finally Captain Sullenberger is selfless, he was the last
one to disembark from his vessel only after he checked twice to make sure everyone was safe.
Lets contrast that with Wall Street CEOs. There are two kinds, those who took the money and bailed early
and those who stayed behind to usher their crew out the layoff exit. Need I say more?

Yes its a good thing Wall Street CEOs are not airline pilots. They have much
to learn from Captain Sullenberger. And that is why I want Captain Sullenberger to be the CEO
of my bank. But, guys like Capt Sullenberger only engage in endeavors that they have trained for.

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