Goodbye, celebrity perfume. Hello, comfy jeans.

Since retailers make most, if not all, of their profits in the slim window between Thanksgiving and Christmas, it’s no surprise that they’re eyeing the calendar this year with more trepidation than usual. While first-time unemployment claims dropped by 20,000 in the last week of October and home sales rose by 10.1 percent last month, prospects are still gloomy for much of the economy.

One bit of good news is that August sales data—which include some back-to-school traffic and offer retailers a peek into shoppers’ minds—aren’t as miserable as they might have been. Once you take out auto sales, which skewed the numbers because of a Cash for Clunkers-induced spike, August sales crept up 0.6 percent, and even that number could have been goosed by many municipalities shifting sales tax holidays from July to August. Some analysts also fret that the runaway success of Cash for Clunkers could nibble away at retailers’ hopes for the holiday season, since all those buyers now have shiny, new monthly payments along with their vehicles.

So what’s ahead for the holiday shopping season? We've peered into our snow globe to bring you retail predictions for both retailers and consumers. This year, red and green are going to have whole new meanings.

Early reports of Black Friday door-buster leaks are already circulating, and a few of them—if they turn out to be accurate—are truly eye-popping, such as netbooks for $129 and 52-inch, name-brand LCD TVs for just over a grand. Analysts say we can expect more of the same, as companies try to top one another to get customers in the door. Unlike last year, however, Black Friday's steals won't be followed by the free-for-all markdowns that characterized the fourth quarter of 2008. Retailers cut back their orders from manufacturers, edited their collections, and reduced their inventory. Import traffic at California’s Los Angeles and Long Beach ports is down to 2003 levels. This means there's going to be a lot less stuff around for 80 percent off.

This doesn’t necessarily mean customers will be forced to pay full price come December, though. Retailers are embracing bundling in a big way. When the inflatable Santas start popping up, “buy this, get that” deals won’t be far behind. This lets beleaguered stores keep up the amount people spend, even if their profits take a hit. Don't worry too much about the retailers if you’re bagging a free undershirt, downloadable song, or face cream, though. Store executives aren’t in the panic they were in last year, and they’ve pretty much put a halt to blind fire-sale markdowns. The goodies shoppers will be getting for “free” are likely to be bundled with high-margin items.

Some discount chains are experimenting with a throwback to the last big recession: layaway. You pay for your item in installments, but you don't get to actually wear, ride, or play with it until you've paid it off. Corporate siblings Sears (SHLD) and Kmart started promoting layaway in a big way once the recession took hold, with Sears reinstituting the practice after a 10-year hiatus and Kmart (which had kept layaway around even during the boom years) giving it new promotional coverage. A Kmart exec told the Associated Press he expects layaway to be at “record-setting” volume this year.