What Can Go Right

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What Can Go Right

Reasons to be economically cheerful.

By Mark Gimein
Posted Wednesday, November 5, 2008 - 12:09pm

To read the message of gloom in the press going into Election Day, you'd think that it's a near certainty that within a couple of years we'll all be living in (heavily mortgaged) tents, heating up cans of beans with our last remaining stocks of propane. You'll find publications—like, say, this one—serving up a time capsule of news from the 1930s Great Depression. You'll find writers—yes, like this one—telling you that however bad you think the mortgage and financial crises are, they'll get worse.

But the imploding real estate and financial services markets aren't the only drivers of the economy. John McCain was rightly pilloried when he said that "the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are strong." It was the wrong message for the wrong day. The United States has genuine fundamental economic problems. But it has real strengths, too. In fact, as much as McCain was criticized for serving up the "fundamentals are strong" line, it's probable that when Obama takes office in January, he'll spend his first day sending out a very similar "we're not that far down" signal. And, in fact, we're not Iceland. The United States isn't close to getting kicked back to the '70s. So, a few things that can give us reason for optimism:

1. Tech Is Stronger Than Ever. The United States is still home to some of the world's most successful companies, and a few of them have spent the last few years on a hell of a tear. You've heard of some of them: Apple, Google, Intel. The global frenzy over the iPhone showed that there's an enormous world demand for Apple's products, and Apple has barely started to fill it. Google, somehow miraculously quarter after quarter, continues to meet sky-high expectations. Intel has done a spectacular job of maintaining its near monopoly of PC microprocessors while carefully hedging its bets and separating its fortunes from Microsoft.

IBM now has the world's fastest supercomputer, and the second- and third-fastest, as well. That's just a tiny fraction of IBM's business, which depends mainly on software and services-and is growing fastest outside the United States. Microsoft isn't going away, either, and while Apple's ads might seem like they're ubiquitous here, it's Microsoft that's ubiquitous worldwide (a point highlighted in its newest ad campaign). Oracle is thumping its international competition.

There's more. The froth of the tech boom has evaporated, but the strong coffee is still there. Many overhyped tech companies have crashed and burned, but a few—Juniper Networks, for instance—have prospered and grown and become major players. And there's a whole new crop of companies growing in Silicon Valley, from deep-in-the-weeds tech experts like Arista Networks to fumbling, but still fascinating and promising, electric carmaker Tesla.

2. The Dollar Is Still the World's Favorite Currency. Yes, we're right smack in the middle of the worst financial panic in half a century. But guess what? The rest of the world is, too. European stock markets have fallen as far as ours, and what the investment pros call "emerging markets"—that is, everyone else—have gone down even further. (Russia's down two-thirds.) In a panic, people flee to safety, even if, as it happens in this case, that it's right into the arms of the folks—us—who've pretty much slapped them senseless. U.S. government bonds remain the world's safest investments, and other countries are holding on to their dollar reserves and putting them in Treasuries.

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IBM layoffs

Even the United States can’t deny the fact that even the most powerful country in the world can also suffer hard times especially now that we are all suffering from the global financial crisis. Even large companies from different industries are also hurting from this economic chaos. IBM or the “Big Blue” just announced recently about their layoff of 5,000 workers and decided to outsource jobs overseas. IBM and other tech industry giants have been outsourcing for years, as it keeps them from getting short term loans to stay afloat, I guess. Granted, it doesn't do their communities, the families of those afflicted, and the country in which they live in any good. So now, IBM layoffs have joined the ranks of so many other companies.

Please . . .

#1 As consumers get their cards cutup expect new iphones and laptops to collect dust. As advertisers start to tighten the belt watch google's revenue growth drop.

#3 TELL THIS TO THE AUTO INDUSTRY. The consumer has been shut down here. As the fear of getting canned ripples through the economy expect people to continue to wait to buy a new car - or any other big stuff (furniture, appliances, vacations)

#4 Please, end consumption and plans for such drive all these other businesses. Folks like US Steel and Nucor are seeing the prices and qty of steel orders plummeting (in part because of the auto crash) There are lots of great industrial companies but if they don't have customers they won't have profit, no profit means fewer jobs and investment.

Toyota is a great company - but as unit sales plummet they too lay people off.

#5 The oil price drop is great - too bad its driven from a crashing economy, and it's going to pound the renewable efforts.

#6 Happy thoughts and T-shirt sales will fix this though. Heck, if we can't sell enough T-shirts maybe the 4th qtr gun sales will help. :)

regarding #3: have you seen

regarding #3: have you seen the retail numbers?

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