TBM’s interactive tool measures whether critics affect box-office receipts.

There are plenty of other insights to glean here. The revenues of kids’ movies, in particular, seem impervious to critical consensus. The correlation was far from significant for kiddie movies, probably because there are fewer kids’ movies and, quite possibly, kids do not meticulously follow the critical reception of Alvin and the Chipmunks.  

Oh, and that conventional wisdom that a critic can’t stop a blockbuster from having a major weekend? Its accuracy is questionable. There is a positive (and statistically significant) correlation between better reviews and better per-theater averages on opening weekends for all blockbusters. So the conventional wisdom may be wrong. But on the other hand, the correlation disappears when you isolate comedy movies, and action movies, as well.

So, for Watchmen, it appears that we can certainly say that its mediocre reviews won’t have an effect on this weekend’s tally. But those reviews may correlate to a flameout in the long run. It’ll be a pyrotechnic display that would make Rorschach proud.

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You can download our spreadsheet here and have a look for yourself. For stat nuts who want to experiment, plug any action blockbuster's Metacritic rating into this equation: [(-0.1946*Metacritic score)+43.819] to predict the first weekend's percentage gross. All theories as to what all these data mean are welcome in our inbox. E-mail us, too, if you have any insights, questions, or complaints about the data or methodology. We’re eager for as many people to play with these data as possible.

(Photo courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures)