Sickness Unto Debt

Sickness Unto Debt

The Treasury bailout will only exacerbate red ink and inflation.

Posted Monday, October 13, 2008 - 10:01am

One of the burning questions regarding the recently passed bailout, and the one that almost no one has bothered to answer, is how the government intends to pay for it. Governments have three main methods by which they can raise funds: taxation, printing new money, and debt. As our $10 trillion national debt shows, the federal government has always enjoyed raising money by issuing new debt. Money is gained upfront, while the cost of repaying that debt is pushed onto future generations.

This method is especially favored today, since imposing $700 billion worth of taxes would lead to widespread public dissatisfaction. When the cost of all the recent bailouts plus the cost of all the new lending facilities the Federal Reserve has initiated are added together, we quickly reach a figure in the trillions of dollars. Even with the debt ceiling being raised to $11.3 trillion, the issuance of debt alone cannot begin to cover the cost of all the bailouts in which the government is engaged. Every indication is that the government will use both debt and inflation in its attempt to keep the economy running at full speed.

Debt financing has begun in earnest, as the national debt has increased $600 billion over the past three weeks, and most of that increase came even before the $700 billion bailout bill was passed. I fully expect that trend to continue in the near future and would not be surprised if we see another debt-limit increase slipped into another economic stimulus package that might be passed before the new year. Now that our foreign creditors are less willing to purchase our debt, what debt we cannot sell to foreigners will be monetized through the Federal Reserve, resulting in increased inflation.

In fact, money supply data for the narrowest measure, the adjusted monetary base, show an unprecedented increase, far higher than when Chairman Alan Greenspan attempted to reflate us out of trouble after the dot-com stock bubble burst. That intervention on Greenspan's part, pumping in liquidity and driving interest rates down, led to the real estate bubble, and Chairman Ben Bernanke unfortunately seems to be following the same script as his predecessor in resorting to credit creation and low interest rates. Even were this effort to succeed, it would only delay the inevitable. In order for the economy to return to normal, the Federal Reserve must cease the creation of new credit, overvalued assets must be allowed to fall in price, and malinvested resources must be allowed to liquidate and be put to use in more productive sectors.

The government's reaction to the credit crisis is based on the erroneous belief that the rate of economic growth over the past 10 to 15 years was the result of natural free-market processes, which is not the case. Rates of economic growth during the dot-com and real estate booms were clearly indicative of an overheated economy, and any attempt to try to stimulate the economy to return to such rapid growth will fail. Rather than allowing asset bubbles to pop and malinvested resources to liquidate, Federal Reserve monetary policy has attempted to pump more and more new money and credit into the system to try, in vain, to sustain the economic boom.

The monetary base jumping by such a large margin is an indicator that the Federal Reserve has not learned from its mistakes and is hoping to get out of this economic downturn by creating even more credit out of thin air. With such large increases in the monetary base and with banks legally able to hold zero reserves, the vaunted money multiplier effect could theoretically reach infinity. If our policymakers fail to come to their senses, there is a real danger that we could end up in a hyperinflationary crisis such as the ones that beset Germany in the 1920s and Argentina and Zimbabwe in more recent decades

  • Ron Paul represents Texas’s 14th District in the U.S. House of Representatives and is the author of The Revolution: A Manifesto.

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Common Sense

Who wouldn't love to see Ron debate John McCain on monetary policy? I'd pay for that pay-per-view.

Is anybody else out there beginning to believe that maybe the Republican Party doesn't want to win the '08 election? Perhaps they don't want to be blamed for the next 4 years of gross inflation and imploding equity. If you guys thought the Carter years were bad, just wait...

Maybe it's a conspiracy theory, but I'll drop it if you can answer one question. Why would the media ignore a Republican so exciting that YOUNG people actually send him money?

Responsibility

Ron Paul is the best!

Regarding the media, they knows that most Americans do not want the type of freedom Dr. Paul talks about. They do not want to be responsible - they want someone else to take care of them and their families.

It's really sad. Freedom is hard work and they know it.

Ron Paul is the only person

Ron Paul is the only person who has actually been willing to discuss the possible effectiveness or lack thereof of this bailout. I am impressed that he is still talking about it. I was open to hearing Ben Barnanke's argument, but he did not offer it to me. He treated the American public and the congress as if we were just too ignorant to understand any of this and make a rational decision. He didn't offer a suitable answer to these questions when Dr. Paul asked them before the House. Such a painfully short time after the hasty and ultimately wrong decision to invade Iraq, our representatives once again fell victim to the argument that 'this is a crisis and we must act immediately without measuring consequences or precedent.' I would vote for Dr. Paul now, and I will vote for him if he runs again.

Amen ,Bro Paul

I cannot vouch for your ideas of virtually NO Social services.
But you are spot on as far as this bailout and government spending using credit.
Maybe the biggest failure this election year was that the voters did not make you the Republican Nominee and POTUS.
You are a cool drink of water in a desert of spend thrift politicians pandering for our votes.
You have made a convert...a liberal democrat, at that !!!!
PAUL 2012

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