Who's Manipulating Whom?

Who's Manipulating Whom?

The Obama team’s charges about Chinese currency don’t make sense.

Posted Wednesday, January 28, 2009 - 4:56pm

Many economists believe that the adoption of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which reduced imports and set off an international trade war, was a major cause of the Great Depression. Even an isolationist like auto pioneer Henry Ford felt that the bill was "economic stupidity."

With the U.S. economy now engulfed by its worst economic crisis since the 1930s, some commentators are finding seeds of a new and possibly damaging trade war in the statement by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner last week that China is "manipulating its currency" to gain an advantage in international trade. Geithner said that President Obama would use "all the diplomatic avenues open to him" to force China to change its currency policy. The White House on Monday clarified this to say that Geithner had merely reiterated Obama's position in last year's presidential campaign and that a formal determination of whether China was manipulating its currency would not come until the spring. But the damage was done: China angrily denied the charge, with Su Ning, vice governor of the People's Bank of China, countering that "these remarks are not only inconsistent with the facts, but they are misleading about the reasons for the financial crisis."

It was not a great way to begin a diplomatic relationship. Still, it's a fair question: Is China manipulating its exchange rate unfairly, and is the United States being damaged by Beijing's currency policies?

China does not allow its currency, the yuan, to be freely traded in foreign exchange markets, so technically Geithner is right that Beijing artificially sets its value. China used to set the yuan at a fixed rate against the dollar but ended the dollar peg—after pressure from Washington—in July 2005 and now allows the yuan to fluctuate by up to 0.5 percent per day against the dollar. That's still not free trade in the most technical sense, but look at the result: The yuan has gained 21 percent against the dollar since the dollar peg ended in 2005, so it's hard to argue the Beijing has acted in only its own interests.

Besides, the world currency markets have been in turmoil for the last six months, leading to a flight to the dollar worldwide. And plenty of other countries manipulate their currencies when it suits their needs. Just last week, the Swiss National Bank said it was preparing to intervene in the currency markets to stop the rise in the value of the Swiss franc against the euro. And Eisuke Sakakibara, a former top official of the Japanese finance ministry known to currency traders everywhere as Mr. Yen, predicted that Tokyo would intervene soon to reverse the rise of the yen, which touched 87.10 yen to the dollar last week, up sharply from 120 yen less than six months ago. A possible reason: Sony predicted $3 billion in annual losses because of the yen's strength. South Korea also said it was considering a depreciation of the Korean won after foreign trade slumped in the fourth quarter. Aren't those all currency manipulations by Geithner's standards?

So why single out China? What undoubtedly put Geithner's bull's-eye on China's back is the huge trade surplus that China earns from Western nations, especially the United States. Chinese customs officials reported that the country had a whopping trade surplus of $290 billion in 2008, up 18 percent from 2007. But look a little more closely at the numbers, and the explanation for that huge trade surplus is not growing exports but plummeting imports due to the impact of the world economic slowdown on China's domestic market. Shipments to the United States actually declined 4.1 percent in December and exports to the European Union, China's biggest export market, fell by 3.5 percent.

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When pigs fly

With hostilities between stupid new administration and China on the rise, China might decide to actually spend the dollars and sell the treasuries. When pigs will fly they will buy American products… What they can do, is to create a 2-3 year long boom in commodities, including oil, and raw foods, like grains. In addition they will force Federal reserve to buy treasuries not from Treasury (to fuel Obama spending and additional borrowing), but from international markets (to prevent price collapse of the treasuries). That will cause the flood of dollars to the international market(Macrodollars), with further spillover in commodities and few exportable goods like the autos… The real base under this is that the China does not need the dollars, it can produce almost anything (but oil) all by itself… As soon as US will start to play protectionism with China, and export down as they are, China will start dump treasuries to finance current accounts. That might as well be a final blow to the financial system and its rate setting mechanism, as treasury yield will skyrocket, killing off American recovery in the process. The American government will be force to lend directly to the public at the artificial low rates with spillover to housing and production overcapacity. The storm will continue for as long as China will be burning through it’s humongous reserve stockpile. In absence of internal demand for dollars (contrary to Russia), dollar cannot ride out at expense of china currency, like it did with ruble. At the end US will face a choice between raising taxes to finance traditional treasury borrowing at increased rate, all while lending to the public to prevent economy collapse, or start printing dollars to give Federal reserve ammunition to buy treasuries, and keep yields artificially low. Both development are inflationary, but it is 2-3 years away.

Guilty as charged

China's currency moving 21% since 2005 is puny compared to the growth of it's foreign exchange reserves and imbalance in trade. Over the past 4 months alone, the dollar and euro have moved around that much. It's time for us to realize that China's policies are all geared toward full employment--environmental, fiscal, currency, labor laws, subsidies, etc--at the expense of other countries employment. We need to start knocking some of these policies down if we want to find a new equilibrium. The easiest is the x-rate because it is the most obvious. I don't buy the argument that they'll stop buying our debt either. If they do, we'll have to live with less. If we live with less, they're economy hits the skids.

CHINA GRUMBLES

Well China is justified in blaming us for the the current financial meltdown, but perhaps it is time to re-evaluate the relationship.

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