A black swan meets some ugly ducklings.

In normal times, the conferencariat are an arrogant bunch. This is something Murray knows well from his travels on the conference circuit, which begins each year with the World Economic Forum in Davos. "Davos is usually filled with people who have all the answers," Murray says. "What was so striking about Davos this year was all these people, for once, didn't have all the answers. No one could tell you with certainty what was happening or what needed to be done."

No one but Nassim Taleb. Before Davos, Murray read The Black Swan. At the conference, the newspaperman and the trader had many conversations over the course of four days. Murray came to the conclusion that Taleb was the iconic figure of Davos in 2009. "In my mind, he had the perfect message for the moment."

So Murray invited Taleb to the Future of Finance Conference, where 100 grandees of the financial world, ranging from Steve Schwarzman and George Soros to Meredith Whitney, Peter Fisher, and Nobel laureate Myron Scholes, got together to outline some principles for rebuilding the financial system. The conference opened with Murray interviewing Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner fresh from his 497-point victory lap after the announcement of his plan to deal with the toxic mortgage-backed assets. It closed with a field trip to the White House and an audience with Lawrence Summers.

Nassim Taleb turned down the chance to kiss Summers' ring. He left after dinner the first night. While the 130-person conference debated the government's new regulations that George Soros described as merely "tinkering" with the system, Taleb has a clear-eyed plan.

First, he says, we have to unmask the charlatans of risk like Myron Scholes. To Taleb, Scholes is the Great Oz in this Emerald City because his work on options and derivatives allowed the whole of the financial system to adopt poorly understood products-like the ones that brought AIG down-that hide risk. To Taleb, Scholes' academic work, which enabled the widespread use of complex derivatives, was like "giving children dynamite."

"This guy should be in a retirement home doing Sudoku," Taleb says. "His funds have blown up twice. He shouldn't be allowed in Washington to lecture anyone on risk."