Translating the Stress Test Results Into English

Translating the Stress Test Results Into English

The juicy bits from the government's report card on 19 banks.

Posted Thursday, May 7, 2009 - 5:33pm

Those stress tests on the 19 largest U.S. banks had been presaged by strategic leaking that answered a couple of questions: Who'd need the money? Would it mean nationalization? Reading the government's intentions is never easy, but now we've got the tea leaves in the form of a 38-page report on the stress tests' (or Supervisory Capital Assessment Program) results. The Big Money has the juicy bits, and we include a translation to guide the bureaucratic language.

"These examinations were not tests of solvency; we knew already that all these institutions meet regulatory capital standards. ... The results released today should provide considerable comfort to investors and the public".—From Ben Bernanke's statement

Translation: Don't panic. We won't be nationalizing anything. Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley will issue new common stock to make up your shortfalls—everything will be OK!

"After taking account of losses, revenues and reserve build requirements, in the aggregate, these firms need to add $185 billion to capital buffers to reach the target SCAP capital buffer at the end of 2010 under the more adverse scenario. ... First, the $185 billion accrues to 10 of the 19 firms, meaning 9 of the 19 firms already have capital buffers sufficient to get through the adverse scenario in excess of 6 percent Tier 1 capital and 4 percent Tier 1 Common capital. ... The $185 billion estimated additional capital buffers correspond to the estimate that would have applied at the end of 2008. But a number of these firms have either completed or contracted for asset sales or restructured existing capital instruments since the end of 2008 in ways that increased their Tier 1 Common capital. ... The effects of these transactions and revenues rendered the additional capital needed to establish the SCAP buffer equal to $75 billion."—From Page 3

Translation: Well, maybe you should've worried a while ago. But things are getting better now.

"[T]his exercise counters the risk that uncertainty itself exerts contractionary pressures on the banking system and the economy. In the event the economy weakens more than expected, the firms will have adequate capital."—From Page 3

Translation: Just by doing this test (or reading about it), don't you feel healthier? We do!

"The SCAP (Supervisory Capital Assessment Program) buffer does not represent a new capital standard and is not expected to be maintained on an ongoing basis."—From Page 3

Translation: Treat all numbers we are about to give you with caution! We'll never make banks put this much money aside.

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