Thy Neighbor's Mortgage
Why $75 billion to help home borrowers is a bargain.
Six months into the financial crisis, we now have the outlines of a plan to keep some, though not most, struggling home borrowers in their homes. The plan officially introduced today is modest at best—$75 billion in government spending to help at-risk homeowners is practically small potatoes now that we've gotten used to the thrilling trill of saying "trillions of dollars." But it's being greeted by the Modern Hooverists as an assault on the frugal and responsible. Two weeks ago, CNBC's Rick Santelli challenged the Obama administration to hold an online referendum "to see if we really want to subsidize the losers' mortgages." According the Treasury department, this may include as many as 9 million American families. To the Santellis of the world, these folks are the lucky duckies, remaining comfortably in their homes thanks to legislative fiat and government largesse, instead of heading out into the street where they belong.
The problem with this line of reasoning is not the absence of moral clarity—well, it is that, too—but an equal lack of economic clarity. The subsidies and interest rate cuts on the table now are a pretty good deal for the debtors desperate to stay in their homes. They are, however, an even better deal for their lenders and their neighbors. You might not like the idea of paying to subsidize your neighbor's mortgage, but you'll like the alternatives even less.
Under the rescue plan, banks would cut the interest rates for people who can't afford their mortgages enough to bring their payments down to somewhere from 31 percent to 38 percent of their income for the next five years. Most of the cuts would come out of the banks' pockets, with the government chipping in up to $75 billion in matching funds. Or, to put it another way that's probably a lot easier to keep in your head, a family that earned $50,000 a year after taxes would get enough of a rate cut to get their mortgage down to between $1,300 and $1,600 a month.
You can go online to any of a number of mortgage calculators and examine the numbers yourself to see how this plays out. I tried running the numbers on a fairly simple example. I assumed our hypothetical family bought their house three years ago and still owed $300,000 on the mortgage. At an interest rate of 6.5 percent, they'd have payments of $1,967 a month. Taking the rate down to 3.5 percent would save them about $534 a month and leave them paying 34 percent of their income for housing instead of 47 percent.
If you are susceptible to mortgage-rate envy (if you've ever shopped for a mortgage, you know what I mean), this might sound like a nice little windfall to you. Who couldn't use that extra $500 a month? If you had it, you might move into a nicer house, too. But look what happens when those five years of reduced mortgages are over.
Now it's 2014, and the folks we bailed out still owe about $263,000 on their house. Their low interest rate is about to jump. If they live in one of the areas of the country where prices have plummeted—and most of the people who need the bailout do—they will still owe more on the house than it's worth. They are still underwater. The house that they bought for somewhere in the low $300,000s at the height of the market is not worth $263,000 today, and it will not be worth that five years from now.
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No, I don't want
No, I don't want to pay for their houses when I made a wise decision on my home purchase but, at the same time. What will my neighborhood look like after it's all said and done. There are For Sale signs popping up all over the neighborhood. The most important thing to think of is what is the best choice we can make for our future and our kids future. Is it for us to sacrifice ourselves now or later. What will the future hold if we don't help our neighbors out? No one really knows. We can just try to make the most logical decision now and wish for the best.
Renters
Realistically, you probably wouldn't be able to get a mortgage if house prices went into full scale free fall. Banks would simply refuse to loan out more than a piddling amount of money. We are talking 50% cash purchase requirement, and real cash not credit cash. So it is to the renter's advantage to not crash the market.
Speak for yourself
But what people who can afford their payments should hope for is that the decline can be stemmed. Translation: The government should attempt to fix RE prirces. Econ 101 calling: Price fixing fails, always. Throwing your neighbor a life preserver is a much cheaper option than having him pull you underwater with him. Actually, no. I'm a renter.
And what happens when...
Right right. So this all seems to have no real effect on you as a renter. Except, what happens when the property you are living in is foreclosed upon by the bank? Do you think you won't have to find a new place to live?
No, really. What about the renters?
How does this plan help those of us in major metropolitan areas who are in our mid 20's to mid 30's? who knew what we could afford? Knew that teaser rates would eventually end and were generally smart enough to attempt to wait this whole thing out? How is this plan to our advantage?
What about lowly renters?
Your argument makes sense for those worried about the declining value of a overpriced home they own. However, for those of us who have been waiting for years for house prices to come down to a realistic level we can afford, the more "fire sales" the better. I chose not to buy a condo at the peak of the housing market - even though I really, really wanted to - because I knew that despite what eager realtors told me, I could not afford it. I don't want five years of subsidizing the homeownership lifestyle that I myself don't get to enjoy, for those who didn't do the math or chose to ignore it.