Save the Economy, Save the Planet
A new politics of climate change for recessionary times.
Even before the financial markets fell into cardiac arrest and Dr. Paulson prescribed his $700-billion adrenaline shot, the economic crisis had become the only issue that really mattered in the presidential election. Sure, the McCain camp was talking about some other crucial stuff—sex education for kindergartners, porcine cosmetology—but Iraq, health care, and especially climate change were and still are lost in the economic glare. That's understandable, but for Americans who began the year feeling hopeful that climate action was finally becoming inevitable, it has been a sobering summer. And now there's fear that a deep recession could drive global warming off the next president's agenda altogether.
The evidence of impending climate catastrophe keeps piling up, and both candidates support a declining cap on greenhouse-gas emissions. Yet they rarely find time to talk about it. (Each gave the subject a polite nod during the Clinton Global Initiative.) Obama and McCain know that at this moment of deep economic distress, warnings about future climate impacts aren't going to help them carry Ohio. That much has been clear since June, when $4-a-gallon gasoline helped snuff the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act and the nation's hopes and dreams began shifting from save the planet to "drill, baby, drill." Opponents of Lieberman-Warner claimed it would jack up energy costs, throw people out of work, and kill the U.S. economy; supporters responded that its impact wouldn't be that bad. Not that bad is not that good a strategy, and green leaders realized then that if they were ever going to break the political logjam, they had to drive home a more optimistic economic message.
Today, that message is coming into focus, and what looked like obstacles to climate action in June may soon be seen as opportunities. Hard times didn't stop Reps. John Dingell and Rick Boucher from releasing a long-awaited climate bill this week, and hard times could actually help propel the climate debate next year, because the steps needed to deal with global warming can also help deal with America's shaky economy and dependence on foreign oil—and even raise money for jobs and infrastructure. Obama's climate adviser, Jason Grumet, mused about the possibilities at an energy conference held recently at Harvard. "To the extent that climate change [legislation] is the next big American stimulus package," he said, "that brings forward a different kind of dialogue."
How does a climate bill become a stimulus package? It begins with our first national debate on energy supply in 30 years. The fossil-fuel brigade may have seized the upper hand with Newt Gingrich's "drill here, drill now, pay less" slogan, but the enviros have an argument of their own: reduce demand through energy efficiency; diversify supply through development of solar, wind, and geothermal energies; and build a clean economy that cuts fuel costs and creates hundreds of thousands of green jobs—steelworkers making wind turbines; carpenters retrofitting buildings; maybe even pipefitters laying the lines needed to capture and store CO2 from coal-fired power plants. In other words, Americans can move toward energy security and shore up the crumbling economy by doing what it takes to solve the climate crisis.
That's the case Al Gore made in his July 17 speech in Washington, D.C., and repeated at the Democratic Convention in Denver the night Obama accepted the nomination. But when it came time for Obama's address, the candidate mentioned the climate crisis only in passing and went much harder on clean energy and green jobs: "I'll invest $150 billion over the next decade in affordable, renewable sources of energy—wind power and solar power and the next generation of biofuels; an investment that will lead to new industries and five million new jobs that pay well and can't ever be outsourced."
Say hello to Obama's Trojan horse—a climate policy hidden inside an energy-and-economic policy. Obama takes Gore's energy trifecta, lops off the climate message, and stores it in the belly of the beast while energy independence and economic renewal drive the contraption forward. The tactic was on display in Tuesday night's presidential debate, when both candidates agreed that clean energy investments could revive the economy. Obama responded to a question about climate change by emphasizing jobs: "The new energy economy," he said, "can be an engine that drives us into the future the same way the computer was the engine for economic growth over the last couple of decades. And we can do it, but we're going to have to make an investment." Climate activists were thrilled to hear Obama call clean energy his "top priority," even if he did so "because you're paying $3.80 here in Nashville for gasoline," not because the arctic ice cap is wasting away. This is not a dumb tactic; the man wants to get elected, and until the Wall Street meltdown gave him a boost, his support was shaky among working-class voters who have more immediate problems than the fate of the Earth—so it just makes sense for him to emphasize job creation rather than planetary salvation. And Obama is not the only one talking this way. Former Bill Clinton Chief of Staff John Podesta, a supremely well-connected wonk who runs the Center for American Progress, says he's hearing the Trojan horse idea "from my friends in the environmental community. They are frustrated. They've been preaching to empty pews for so long, they think maybe if they change churches someone will show up."
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Continued Dialog?
Eric, thank you for responding to my initial comment and post. It's taken me a couple days, but I've written a reply post which I hope can clarify where I stand and elucidate what you characterize as our "basic disagreement" about the necessity of cap and trade. I'd definitely welcome your response and look forward to a continued dialog. It ended up as a long post, but I wanted to be as clear as possible about my reasoning and assumptions so we can avoid any misunderstanding and drill right down to the substance of this discussion. Few other discussions are more critical given the state of our economy and our climate, and the political opportunities marked by what will no doubt be an historic election in just a few weeks. Thanks and take care.
Sincerely,
Jesse Jenkins
The Breakthrough Institute
Investment Spending Yes, Cap and Dividend No
Mr Pooley,
Your analysis of the political environment for climate action is dead-on. The economy is all that matters now, and climate advocates - and the next President - would be wise to develop a strategic "Trojan horse" to advance their ecological goals within the framework of economic recovery.
However, if your prescribed solution is a full-on, economy-wide cap and trade program raising "$100-600 billion annually," I believe you are way off the mark, especially if you think this bill would become politically popular by simply including a program to dividend the bulk of funds back to consumers "to make sure the fix doesn't cost too much."
This strategy, referred to as Cap and Dividend, gets us basically nowhere politically, nor is it effective at dealing with the climate crisis. I've outlined my (strong) concerns with Cap and Dividend, and the very real political obstacles to cap and trade in a blog post here: Cap and Dividend? Sorry, Wrong Answer. I'd like to invite your response. I look forward to reading your reactions.
Sincerely,
Jesse Jenkins
The Breakthrough Institute
http://theBreakthrough.org
Jesse, thanks for your
Jesse, thanks for your comment. Having read your full posting (which I recommend to anyone interested in climate policy) I can only conclude that you and I have a basic disagreement. I think a mandatory declining cap on GHG emissions is essential, and you don't. That's fine, but then you go on to disagree with me on some points I never make. I don't advocate "a Cap and Dividend proposal designed to enact the highest carbon price possible and rebate nearly all of the revenue to consumers, leaving very little to spend on clean technology development and deployment." As a matter of fact, I don't think the carbon price needs to be sky-high to drive clean tech.(But unlike you, I do think a carbon price is a crucial accelerator.) Apparently, since I refer to Peter Barnes in my column, you assume I advocate for all of his policies; that's reading way too much into one name-check. I do agree with Barnes' basic argument that consumers must be cushioned from energy price increases that result from cap-and-trade -- and so do a good many Democrats and Republicans in the House and Senate, so we'll see how the politics play out. You argue that creating such a cushion wouldn't leave enough money for cleantech RD&D. I think you are wrong, and I think you create a false choice -- either a cap or a huge investment in clean technology. I'm in favor of both, and in favor of using the former to finance the latter. Having looked hard at the numbers, I'm convinced that a cap-and-trade bill can raise enough money for both RD&D and consumer relief, without resorting to a sky-high carbon price. By the way, how do you propose we raise the necessary cleantech RD&D money? What's your magical funding mechanism?