Save the Economy, Save the Planet

Save the Economy, Save the Planet

A new politics of climate change for recessionary times.

Posted Wednesday, October 8, 2008 - 1:19pm

Let's be clear: No environmental leader worthy of the name is going to stop talking about the climate crisis and pretend this is just about jobs. Obama's Trojan horse is a campaign tactic, not a legislative one. And that's a good thing, because removing climate from the climate debate would be a terrible idea for three reasons. First, if you make energy self-sufficiency your only goal, there's no reason not to embrace the high-carbon "all of the above" solution advocated by people like Gingrich. "I call those people the dirty greens," says Van Jones of Green for All, the most impressive voice in the eco-justice movement. "They say drill, do tar sands and oil shale, turn coal into liquid fuel-whatever! Burn kittens, as long as they're American kittens. Toast the planet!" Second, if you make freedom from expensive fuel your main motivator, then your argument collapses when energy prices drop. And third, given the continued industry opposition to aggressive climate action, it will take the broadest possible coalition to get a climate bill passed, including evangelicals, national-security wonks, green-jobs activists, alt-fuel mavens, green capitalists, the hook-and-bullet crowd, and an army of enviros. Downplaying the climate crisis means squandering the moral message—our duty to future generations—that has galvanized so many. Besides, it wouldn't work. You can put lipstick on a climate bill, but it's still a climate bill.

So, the task is not to somehow disguise the climate crisis or the declining cap on emissions needed to deal with it, but to propel them forward with a message about the economic benefits of climate action. Since climate, energy, and the economy are intertwined, any climate bill will have a profound effect on the economy, and it just makes sense to embrace it. The next president will take office with a list of expensive promises and no money with which to pay for them. As they try to decide which problems to tackle first, both McCain and Obama recognize that a global-warming bill brings with it a built-in revenue stream. The cap-and-trade system that they support could raise $100 billion to $600 billion a year by auctioning some or all of the permits that allow industry to emit CO2. Some of that money would be spent on energy R&D (that's Obama's 10-year, $150 billion pot of gold), but the next president will have to give most of it back to the people if he wants to pass a climate bill during a recession. It's the best way to resolve the basic cost objections to climate action, and it would help juice the economy while accelerating the transition to a clean energy.

Yes, putting a price on carbon, whether through a tax or cap-and-trade, will drive up household energy costs in the short and medium term before reducing them in the long term, as alternative energy comes on line. Still, receiving an annual check from the climate bill's allowance auctions might persuade some to support it. (Lieberman-Warner devoted $800 billion of its auction proceeds over the next four decades to this sort of energy cost relief. It wasn't nearly enough.) Climate strategist Peter Barnes argues that if the federal government wired them into every American's bank account on a monthly basis (to the tune of, say, $3,000 per household per year), the climate-change bill would becomes the mother of all stimulus packages, the national equivalent of those Alaska dividends that helped make Sarah Palin so popular.

No one should suggest that this money grows on trees. It will come from coal and oil companies, carbon-dependent utilities, and other corporations that buy pollution, and they will surely pass those costs on to customers in the form of higher prices. But according to a University of Massachusetts study, under a cap-and-cash-back plan, most families would come out ahead on the deal. And the more they conserve energy, the more cash they get to keep.

This may not seem like the best moment to argue for the creation of a new market for carbon-do we really want the same bankers who brought us the subprime fiasco to start trading, slicing, and dicing carbon credits? The answer is yes, because without such trading the market is broken. It fails to assign any cost to the global-warming pollution that's being dumped into the skies for free. "Cap-and-trade is a market mechanism, but it's not a free-market mechanism," says Environmental Defense Fund President Fred Krupp. "It's a government-imposed market that remedies a fundamental market flaw. And the idea that markets can be flawed and need a well-thought-out fix is something people may be more receptive to now." Next year, if the new president has the guts to introduce a new climate bill despite the chilly economic winds, it will be time to repair this colossal market failure-while paying people a dividend to make sure the fix doesn't cost too much.

 

  • Eric Pooley, a former managing editor of Fortune magazine, is writing a book about the politics of global warming and is a Bloomberg News columnist.
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Continued Dialog?

Eric, thank you for responding to my initial comment and post. It's taken me a couple days, but I've written a reply post which I hope can clarify where I stand and elucidate what you characterize as our "basic disagreement" about the necessity of cap and trade. I'd definitely welcome your response and look forward to a continued dialog. It ended up as a long post, but I wanted to be as clear as possible about my reasoning and assumptions so we can avoid any misunderstanding and drill right down to the substance of this discussion. Few other discussions are more critical given the state of our economy and our climate, and the political opportunities marked by what will no doubt be an historic election in just a few weeks. Thanks and take care.

Sincerely,

Jesse Jenkins
The Breakthrough Institute

Investment Spending Yes, Cap and Dividend No

Mr Pooley,

Your analysis of the political environment for climate action is dead-on. The economy is all that matters now, and climate advocates - and the next President - would be wise to develop a strategic "Trojan horse" to advance their ecological goals within the framework of economic recovery.

However, if your prescribed solution is a full-on, economy-wide cap and trade program raising "$100-600 billion annually," I believe you are way off the mark, especially if you think this bill would become politically popular by simply including a program to dividend the bulk of funds back to consumers "to make sure the fix doesn't cost too much."

This strategy, referred to as Cap and Dividend, gets us basically nowhere politically, nor is it effective at dealing with the climate crisis. I've outlined my (strong) concerns with Cap and Dividend, and the very real political obstacles to cap and trade in a blog post here: Cap and Dividend? Sorry, Wrong Answer. I'd like to invite your response. I look forward to reading your reactions.

Sincerely,

Jesse Jenkins
The Breakthrough Institute
http://theBreakthrough.org

Jesse, thanks for your

Jesse, thanks for your comment. Having read your full posting (which I recommend to anyone interested in climate policy) I can only conclude that you and I have a basic disagreement. I think a mandatory declining cap on GHG emissions is essential, and you don't. That's fine, but then you go on to disagree with me on some points I never make. I don't advocate "a Cap and Dividend proposal designed to enact the highest carbon price possible and rebate nearly all of the revenue to consumers, leaving very little to spend on clean technology development and deployment." As a matter of fact, I don't think the carbon price needs to be sky-high to drive clean tech.(But unlike you, I do think a carbon price is a crucial accelerator.) Apparently, since I refer to Peter Barnes in my column, you assume I advocate for all of his policies; that's reading way too much into one name-check. I do agree with Barnes' basic argument that consumers must be cushioned from energy price increases that result from cap-and-trade -- and so do a good many Democrats and Republicans in the House and Senate, so we'll see how the politics play out. You argue that creating such a cushion wouldn't leave enough money for cleantech RD&D. I think you are wrong, and I think you create a false choice -- either a cap or a huge investment in clean technology. I'm in favor of both, and in favor of using the former to finance the latter. Having looked hard at the numbers, I'm convinced that a cap-and-trade bill can raise enough money for both RD&D and consumer relief, without resorting to a sky-high carbon price. By the way, how do you propose we raise the necessary cleantech RD&D money? What's your magical funding mechanism?

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