Time To Sell Our Obama Stocks

Portfoli-O: Tracking stocks that define Obama.
Time To Sell Our Obama Stocks

Our cultural portfolio slams Cramer’s political one.

By James Ledbetter
Posted Monday, July 20, 2009 - 4:09pm

For decades, investors have been tempted to pick stocks based on newly elected presidents. It's easy enough to see the appeal: Who wouldn't have imagined, say, that the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan would boost the stocks of Pentagon contractors?

Trouble is, companies often don't perform the way you'd predict. Just because a sector comes into political vogue doesn't mean that every company in it will perform well. Moreover, some companies have as much trouble adjusting to considerable growth as others do managing considerable contraction.

So back in January, TBM decided to go in a different direction: Instead of picking stocks around Obama's presumed political agenda, why not create a cultural Obama portfolio instead? (This idea came from Daniel Gross of Slate and Newsweek, the source of many good TBM ideas.) After all, Obama is much more than a new president: He's a genuine icon, a maker of history, and—along with his family—a pop-culture phenom. As with JFK in the early '60s, people are fascinated by Obama and strive to be like him. So why not invest in the companies that are strongly identified with the Obamas, like BlackBerry maker Research in Motion (RIMM) or J.Crew (JCG), whose clothes can often be seen on Michelle?

As a yardstick, we set ourselves against a hypothetical portfolio suggested by CNBC's Jim Cramer late last year. Cramer's portfolio was based on a more traditional policy agenda: He picked banks—like JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC)—and infrastructure—like Caterpillar (CAT)—as well as some retail and consumer product firms.

How'd we do? In the six months since Inauguration Day, Cramer's stocks have gained just over 10 percent, just slightly worse than the S&P 500's 11.7 percent return in the same period. By contrast, TBM's stocks earned a better than 50 percent return in six months.

What was the secret? You can read a weekly summary of performance here. Of the eight stocks we chose—Apple (AAPL), Hawaiian Airlines (HA), J.Crew, Nike (NKE), Pepsi (PEP), Research in Motion, Target (TGT), and Town Sports International (CLUB)—every single one of them made money, and all but Pepsi beat the S&P 500. Our performance would not have been quite as stellar without J.Crew, which has nearly tripled since we "bought" it in January at $9.61 a share (it closed today at $28.12).

  • James Ledbetter is editor of The Big Money, and of The Great Depression: A Diary, published this month by Public Affairs.
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