Nathan's Dogs' Grand Stand

It would be a real shame if Coney Island were turned, in the words of footnoted.org's Michele Leder, into "a clone of the Mall of America." But could it really hurt the financial position of Nathan's Famous (NATH), the public company that owns the original hot dog stand on the island?

Nathan's thinks it could. In its most recent 10-K, the company says that it is "unable to determine the impact" of the recent closure of the Astroland amusement park or the potential redevelopment of the island. But it says, "any substantial decrease in the number of visitors to Coney Island would likely have a material adverse effect on our financial results."

But how likely? Nathan's has gone way beyond its flagship dog stand, built in 1916. It now owns 225 outlets in 22 states and four countries. It sells its branded dogs in about 11,000 restaurants owned by others. And its packaged products compete with Ball Park and Oscar Mayer in many markets nationwide. Its national hot dog eating contest, albeit distasteful, is still growing in popularity.

Nathan's profits leaped by more than 14 percent in fiscal 2009, to $7.48 million. It took in nearly $50 million in revenue.

The Nathan's brand is deeply etched in America's consciousness, and it seems almost absurd to think it could be harmed by the closure of the flagship. McDonald's (MCD) original store in Des Plaines, Ill., is now a museum that doesn't serve food. And other chains, such as White Castle and Burger King (BKC), long ago closed their original stores with no adverse impact.

Indeed, as sad as a cheesy redevelopment of Coney Island might be for traditionalists, it could actually increase business at the original Nathan's. Maybe by a lot.