Wonk Watch 7.17.09
We read the smarties so you don't have to.
Brad DeLong made the bold suggestion that it's "not yet time to worry about the long-term fiscal outlook" in the United States. We still have two years to start concerning ourselves with sustainability of the U.S. budget, DeLonghe said. To freak out early, he argued, "paralyzes needed action without paying any dividends." Shouting fire in a movie theater has never been my forte, but, if it's all the same to DeLong, I'm going to go ahead and keep panicking anyway.
Paul Krugman tests his readers' willingness to unpack macroeconomic jargon with a self-proclaimed "double super wonkish" post on fiscal policy, his second this week. (Venture forth if you dare. We gave up on this one.) He also takes exception with the demolition of a bridge in Princeton for inconveniencing his commute but geeks out over the name of the construction company responsible for ruining his usual route.
Barry Ritholtz wisely advised us that year-to-year, not month-to-month, statistics are far more valuable in evaluating housing start data. While, as he pointed out, several news outlets jumped on the news that June's housing starts were up 3.6 percent from the May's estimated number, he says this figure isn't what it seems. Because this change falls well within the margin of error, said Ritholtz, we should focus instead on the yearly percentage change in housing starts. (They're down 46 percent from June 2008.) Then Barry got a little testy. "Much of the media reportage on this was simply innumerate ... totally, embarrassingly incorrect," said Ritholtz. Then, when discussing the press coverage of the monthly figures: "3.6% with a margin of error of 11.3% = YOU DON"T KNOW. ... [I]t makes you wonder if these people can count to 21 unless they are naked." Ritholtz is quick to note that this is a "pet peeve" of his. It's OK, Barry, the weekend is here!
Felix Salmon examines today's 2009 quarterly earnings report from Citicorp and concludes that despite the U.S. government's large stake in the company, the majority of the bank's business takes place outside of North America. "I'm all in favor of geographical diversification," writes Salmon, "but this looks almost as though Citi is giving up on the US." So the federal bailouts are actually propping up a company that's not really invested in the United States, he implies.
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