Wonk Watch 10.27.09
We read the smarties so you don't have to.
Following his bullish streak, Barry Ritholtz says, “I am now starting to pull my horns in a bit, as this rally looks to be getting a little tired and showing signs of technical deterioration.” He predicts a 5 percent to 15 percent correction over the next 60 days. Ritholtz lists five indicators that inform his renewed caution:
- “Over the past 4 days, we have had 3 failed rallies;
- The number of New Highs on the major indices is contracting;
- Stocks seem to be reacting far less enthusiastically to earnings beats then they had been;
- The Transports have been acting squirrelly lately;
- The S&P is forming an Ascending Wedge. ...”
Though Ritholtz is a bit more cautious right now, he doesn’t see the need for alarm, calling this a “more of a minor reversal,” because of the low interest rate.
Brad DeLong pulls excerpts from two articles (one and two) that discuss the current recession and the grim outlook for a strong recovery. Both articles—as does DeLong, presumably—call for more stimulus. It is the economically sound thing to do. However, they say that various political roadblocks are likely to stand in the way. DeLong praises the New York Times’ editorial board for understanding macroeconomics, “unlike every single congressional republican.”
Paul Krugman echoes Peter Orszag’s blog post in response to Fred Hiatt’s column in yesterday’s Washington Post. Hiatt criticizes the Senate finance health bill for not including cost-control measures, which Orszag reminds us, are, in fact, in the bill. Krugman believes that Hiatt’s attack is insincere and is used to hide the fact that he “won’t accept any version of fiscal responsibility that doesn’t involve gutting Social Security and Medicare” ... even if the claim is “completely bogus.”
Felix Salmon is still fishing.
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