Handicapping and Psychoanalyzing the Electric Vehicle “Race”

From my perspective, the Chevy Volt has morphed over the past year from being a different kind of hybrid to being a full-on electric vehicle, with gas-propulsion as a sidekick. Initially, the car was explained to the public as utilizing a drivetrain that, unlike that on the Toyota Prius, could conceivably never burn any gas. The Volt uses what General Motors (GMGMQ) calls a “Voltec” system, with an electric motor providing 40 miles of range before a small gas motor kicks in to recharge the battery. The gas motor has no connection to the drive wheels, however. And the lithium-ion battery can be plugged in to re-juice the vehicle.

The whole “plug-in hybrid” designation has fallen away (although Wikipedia still uses it), replaced by “extended-range electric vehicle” (E-REV). And now GM has rolled out an entire website devoted to all things Volt (check out the video of a Volt under construction). Among other things, it contains a link to a Volt-evangelist site that runs down the potential competition from Nissan and Ford (F), both of whom recently received Department of Energy loans to develop advanced cars. The focus of the rundown is on highlighting Nissan and Ford’s decision to avoid range-extension and instead go with greater battery range.

In a sense, GM is stealing a page from the Prius playbook here, but from the perspective of a different technology. The idea with the Prius was to create a high-MPG, low-emissions car that could still run off the gas-fueling infrastructure. The Volt provides similar versatility, but focuses on the electric side of the equation. Of course, the good old reliable gas station is still there, for backup. And you can recharge the battery at home, something you can’t currently do with the Prius—or any other hybrid, minus DIY modifications.

A potential drawback with moving toward all-electric platforms, at the moment, is that lithium-ion batteries are expensive, which will add to vehicle costs. It’s also not clear that 100-miles per charge estimates will hold, once demands start coming in from other systems, such as climate control, entertainment, etc.

You can almost see GM hedging its bets here, figuring that if it can get a reliable 40 miles per charge out of the Volt, it can start thinking about how to broaden the back-up engine offerings. I’ve heard differing estimates on how much gas the Volt will be able to carry. A few gallons? Six to 10 gallons? But the objective seems to be to provide range that’s comparable with a hybrid. Diesels could come next, and then maybe fuel cells, which would place the Volt in zero-emissions territory.

Ultimately, the race here isn’t to develop the first mass-market EV—it’s to gain mindshare with the right behavioral model. GM really believes that consumers suffer from “range anxiety” where EVs are concerned and has to a degree built the Volt around a solution to that problem. The competition thinks that consumers are motivated by higher aspirations and want to greatly reduce emissions. Pretty soon, we’re going to find out which company has the better psychological profiling.