Fear of a "Lost Decade"

Fear of a "Lost Decade"


Posted Tuesday, February 10, 2009 - 4:03am

President Obama did not mince words Monday night. "Obama Warns of 'lost decade,' " the Wall Street Journal blares. The Financial Times and New York Times seized on the president's warning of financial "catastrophe" should Congress fail to take action to pass his stimulus plan, which now stands at about $800 billion. Of course, this is a president trying to win over unconvinced Republican lawmakers and a fair number of everyday Americans. There's bound to be tough talk. The WSJ likened him to a prosecutor in his prime-time news conference. "The president's tones alternated between bipartisan outreach and tough words for Republicans who, he said, backed failed policies that helped drive the country into economic distress. Mr. Obama set benchmarks for his economic recovery plan, saying its success should be judged by whether it creates or saves four million jobs, stabilizes the housing market and gets credit markets operating again," the newspaper wrote.

Meanwhile, the stimulus plan moved a step closer to passage on Monday, overcoming an important procedural hurdle, CNNMoney.com writes. Three Republican senators—Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine—joined Democrats in a vote to cut off debate on the measure, setting up a make-or-break vote as soon as today. If it clears, a single bill would have to be crafted from the Senate and House versions. Senate Majority leader Harry Reid is confident the new bill can be hammered out by Friday.

The other major piece of the Obama recovery plan comes today: the bank bailout initiative. According to the NYT, the plan is the work of new Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and is a more business-friendly blueprint than what some Obama aides had been calling for. "Mr. Geithner, who will announce the broad outlines of the plan on Tuesday, successfully fought against more severe limits on executive pay for companies receiving government aid," the newspaper writes. Other restrictions he successfully battled for include dictating how the banks could spend the bailout money and removing the executives who got the banks into this mess. What else will the plan look like? Reuters reports that Geithner's plan calls on using $500 billion in public and private funds to "sop up" bad assets off banks' books. Business Week attaches an even higher price tag to the bank bailout plan, saying it will cost up to $700 billion.

And, still, the reports from the frontlines of the global-banking sector just get worse. On Tuesday morning, Swiss banking giant UBS reported a larger-than-expected $6.9 billion fourth-quarter loss. It, too, will lay off staff, reducing its work force by 2,000, the WSJ reports. In Japan, Aozora Bank Ltd. will see its chief executive step down after posting a year-end loss of $2.2 billion, the WSJ writes, citing sources. Aozora's biggest shareholder is New York-based investment firm Cerberus Capital Management LP, the newspaper writes, adding that part of its problems is its overexposure to hedge funds and to American lender GMAC. Britain's Barclays, though, appears to have broken the streak of dismal bank results, the Guardian writes. The bank reported a $9 billion profit Monday—"helped by a £2.2bn ($3.3 billion) gain from the acquisition of the US businesses of Lehman Brothers last year," the newspaper reports.

The NYT reports there's been a breakthrough in the Bernie Madoff case—the civil case, that is. The accused fraudster "has agreed to a partial settlement of civil accusations that he ran a $50 billion Ponzi scheme," the newspaper writes. The plea on civil charges will not have a bearing on the criminal case. But the settlement with the SEC "adds further weight to the thesis that negotiations for a plea bargain are gaining momentum," the newspaper writes, citing a legal expert. Also on Monday, the SEC's embattled chief enforcement officer, Linda Chatman Thomsen, stepped down from her post, the NYT writes in a separate article. Thomsen has been roundly criticized for her part in failing to uncover the Madoff scam before he eventually turned himself in last year.

And, finally, it truly is the end of an era in Detroit. General Motors' Vice Chairman Robert Lutz announced he will retire at year's end, the WSJ writes. Lutz became the face of the American automobile during his 46-year run that included stints at all of the Big Three carmakers. But, as is his style, Lutz is not going quietly, the NYT writes. He took a final parting shot, this time at lawmakers and consumers, telling the newspaper: "We are a country that hates its own industry. The auto industry may be partly at fault for its situation, but not entirely."

  • Bernhard Warner is editorial director of Social Media Influence.

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Social decay

The most disturbing development of this moment is that political leaders don't consider any alternative to the excessive spending plans and that all criticism and contemplation on the dire consequences is already labelled as 'unpatriotic' before it is uttered. Because "we need to act fast." Trillions of Dollars, Euro’s and Roubles are being burned in a bonfire of the desperate. despite the calls for fast decision making, the first effects on the economy can only be expected as from end of the year, the multiplier effect will show up too late, and in any case the ‘stimulus package’ will remain a drop in the ocean of hyperinflation and second wave credit card and insurance company defaults. We are broke and society will notice soon… Also see Crunchreport.com on these issues.

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