Fighting Over Inflation

Fighting Over Inflation


Posted Sunday, April 19, 2009 - 5:40am

Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Donald Kohn played down worries that the Fed's lending program will lead to a "surge in inflation" and signaled that the government may make more credit available to banks in need during a speech yesterday at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tenn.  Bloomberg, Retuers, and the Wall Street Journal report that the vice chairman also signaled that the government may make more credit available if the need arises. The central bank's balance sheet has doubled to $2.19 trillion, Bloomberg notes. The WSJ says that, "through the Fed's actions to rejuvenate the economy and the flow of credit, its balance sheet has ballooned, sparking inflation concern. Officials have discussed whether targets for the size of the Fed's balance sheet or the monetary base and reserves ‘would provide some assurance that policy is pointed in the right direction,' " in Kohn's words.

As described by Reuters, former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker challenged the vice chairman at one point about a 2 percent inflation goal. Volcker, "who is famous for halting runaway inflation in the U.S. economy in the 1980s by raising interest rates sharply," questioned Kohn on "how the Fed can talk about ‘price stability' in the same breath as a 2 percent inflation goal, arguing that the target should be lower. But Kohn said a 2 percent goal would give the Fed more flexibility at times of economic shock, because real interest rates start off higher as the economic cycle turns down. The parrying ended with Kohn saying to Volcker: ‘I'm not going to convince you, am I?'"

CNNMoney sets expectations for next week, during which 28 percent of the companies on the S&P 500, or about 140, will report earnings. So far, with 10 percent of the index reporting, "profits are on track to have shrunk 37.4 percent from a year ago, according to the latest from Thomson Reuters," the site says. First up this week is Bank of America (BAC), which according to the Dow Component, will have earned 5 cents per share. Compare that with 23 cents a year ago. Other companies to report tomorrow include IBM (IBM), whose earnings should be about equal to a year ago. Yahoo (YHOO) will report on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley (MS) on Wednesday, and Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) on Thursday. 

Also this week, Congress will begin hearings on an energy and global warming bill that could "revolutionize how the country produces and uses energy," BusinessWeek reports. If lawmakers put up too much resistance, the Obama administration has said it is ready to  "use decades-old clean air laws to impose tough new regulations for motor vehicles and many industrial plants to limit their release of climate-changing pollution."

Bolstering the administration's eco-friendly stance is a report released Friday by the Environmental Protection Agency, which found that carbon dioxide and five other emissions "endangered the health and welfare of current and future generations," according to the WSJ, which gives the story the top spot in its weekend edition, the report is the first "formal recognition" by the government of the threats posed by climate change. "The impact of the EPA finding could be dramatic," the paper says. As a result of the findings, the EPA may raise fuel-efficiency standards for cars and force automakers to manufacture more hybrid cars.

The Washington Post declares it's "a Golden Age for cheapskates." Super bargain hunter Jill Berry, a mother of three living in Maryland, has taken to online giveaways, which have thus far netted her "T-shirts, cleaning products, a small portable vacuum, olive oil, beef jerky andbest of alla Nintendo DS." "The recession has emboldened a certain kind of consumer: The mooch. With dwindling retirement savings, a higher cost of living, and wobbly job market, they don't just want discounts on items they used to pay full price for without a second thought. They want freebies," the story says. And businesses are playing into demand. In February, Washington, D.C., McDonald's, for example, gave away medium-size hot or iced coffee from 5 a.m. to 9 a.m. with no purchase necessary. The read is worth it, especially for  all the tips, tricks and Web sites referenced from which budding cheapskates at home can learn how to get their own free minutiae.

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Inflation fog.

Watching for inflation to appear quickly becoming fashionable occupation. Fair warning – it is not your father’s inflation anymore, and the one in the works is not going to be old time inflation either. Ordinary, old fashioned inflation most economists know as process of price increases for goods and services triggered and followed) by incremental increases in pay of workers who buying (using) those goods and services. I wish that economists would put the fear of inflation of that kind to rest as it was rare in developed world to begin with, and it will not happened this time. At the core beginning of any inflationary event is out of control government spending. It may be caused by war (or cold war like preparation to war, or postwar reconciliation effort), it may be caused by running out of control entitlements, it may be caused by maintaining a normal or increased level of government spending on backdrop of economic crisis and falling receivables. It will do it, however only if government unable to borrow money it needs to hand out to its servants and dependants. If the borrowing is intact, net effect of inflation could be negligible, or even negative on the long run, as money removed from economy will be greater at the end that the money injected in it. The net result that I envision is reduction in the standard of living, not inflation. In fact the reduction in standard of living, reduction in financial freedom that everybody was feeling even before the financial crisis was of direct consequences of the fact that amount of money in the society spent on servicing debt is way higher then generation or two ago. And it does not matter that you do not have any debt or even mortgage. The price of debt servicing is build in everything from your phone bill to real estate taxes down to the bus ticket. Truth about consequences. The 1-2% inflation we used to read about last decade or two was driven by unusual cause – an investment. Everything that can be somehow construed as investment went up in price, as vehicles for investment from mutual funds to REITs proliferated. Money from, and for investment spilled over in housing. Housing was lagging way behind inflation in prices, but as the house become an investment vehicle it come to the forefront. But as of now housing is not in the game, as well as most of the investment inflationary pressure is way down. Most active investments are now in cash(which is not going to be spent as it was designated for the investment in the first place) or in bonds (endless supply of those virtually assuring they not going to go up in price, and virtually guarantee further reduction in standard of living as more and more money will go to interest payments).

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