Unemployment Falls, but Half a Million Jobless Sit Out
Unemployment Falls, but Half a Million Jobless Sit Out
Leading the front pages today is the so-called good news about jobs, which is that the bleeding of them from the national economy has slowed. The Washington Post reports the "unemployment rate fell to 9.4 percent, from 9.5 percent in June, and employers slashed 247,000 jobs, the slowest rate of decline in nearly a year." Despite hopes the numbers foreshadow the recession's end, economists generally think unemployment will rise again before any long-term recovery. The figures are not due to any job creation miracles, says the Post: "422,000 people removed themselves from the labor force, essentially giving up the search for work." Still, the New York Times calls it "the most heartening employment report since last summer" and quotes Vice President Biden's economic adviser as saying the numbers would've been far worse without the stimulus passed earlier this year. Another Times story notes a lack of job growth in the private sector over the last decade.
A Times analysis tracks the wildly swinging pendulum of opinion on Obama's economic team by asking, "What if in the end they got it right?" The economists at Barclay's Capital concur, having said yesterday that "[i]t's over," meaning the "Great Recession."
The Wall Street Journal continues its series on congressional spending by reporting on an 11-day "global-warming trip" taken by 10 members of Congress and six spouses. The members studied the problem up close: "They went diving and snorkeling at the Great Barrier Reef. They also rode a cable car through the Australian rain forest, visited a penguin rookery and flew to the South Pole." The Journal also reports that Congress allotted itself eight new jets worth $550 million, despite a recommendation from the Defense Department to buy just four planes.
Airbus could face more problems, reports the AP, as the airspeed sensors suspected to be at fault in the Air France crash over the Atlantic Ocean in June have "also malfunctioned on at least a dozen recent Northwest Airlines flights." The sensors are already being replaced in many Airbus A330s, the model that crashed, but the new data could accelerate that process.
The Post has more on the outages on social networking sites Twitter and Facebook. They may have been due to an attack on a Georgian political blogger who reports on tensions with Russia. "It looks like Twitter and Facebook were just caught up in the collateral damage from an attack on this one blogger's site," one security expert said.
The new General Motors (MTLQQ) will IPO by July 10, 2010, one year after its exit from bankruptcy, reports Bloomberg. The carmaker and its competitors have all been buoyed by the success of the Cash for Clunkers program, which will get a $2 billion infusion from Congress, says the Times. The Post reports that startup automaker Coda will beat GM to market with its electric car, which is actually a platform for a plethora of suppliers and designers, since the company doesn't even own its own factory.
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unemployment
Where does the Post come up with the figure "422,000 have given up looking for work?" Are they sure it's not 423,000?
New/Old GM
"The new General Motors (MTLQQ) .."
Why do these financial articles continue to link the old GM stock symbol to talk about the new GM? No wonder the old GM - which is being liquidated to pay off it's creditors - has a market cap of half a billions dollars. Articles like this give people the mistaken impression that they're buying stock in the New GM.
9.5% to 9.4% means "Nothing"
Do not be deceived by an Unemployment Rate decrease of 1 tenths of 1% as a sign of an economic bottoming or turn around. The pundits are claiming the Recession is over and it isn't by any stretch of the imagination. This is more a case of number shuffling combined with continued job loss.
If you look here ( http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm ) "Table A-1 Employment Status of the Non-Institutional Population"; you will find the Civilian Labor Force has shrunk at a far greater rate than the number of Unemployed. This shrinkage of the Non-Institutional Population in the Civilian Labor Force is also reflected in the ratio detailed as Participation Rate, which decreased from 65.7% to 65.5%. The Unemployed Ratio (9.5% to 9.4%) shrinkage of 1 tenth of 1% in the Unemployment Rate is the result of measuring a smaller Unemployed (-125,000) against a smaller Civilian Labor Force (-420,000).
It is more smoke and mirrors with the numbers being shuffled around from the the Civilian Labor Force (which went down) to Not In Labor Force, which if you noticed . . . went up (+540,000). The difference is in the growth of the Non-Institutional Population.
So why did this happen? The decrease is "probably" reflective of people losing Unemployment Benefits, where they have to be looking for a job, and therefore are counted as a part of the Civilian Labor Force; than an improvement in the economy. A reflection of how bad the Employment situation is can be found in the Participation Rate of 65.5% which is at the lowest level since the eighties, and dueing GWB administration, and will go lower before this is all over.
If you no longer have benefits, you do not have to be job searching, "although BLS "estimates" that some of the people continue to look for jobs." While the BLS openly states you do not have to be on Unemployment Benefits to be counted in the Civilian Labor Force, ~400,000 people dropped out of the Civilian Labor Force in one month which closely correponds to the number losing Unemployment benefits. In support of my premise, I would also contend the states know who is working weekly by how we are paid, via check, which is automatically reported when deposited somewhere. If you are on UE benefits, try sneaking earnings past them sometime.
Too soon to declare a victory and Obama's stimulus still has to hit the job creation market.